{"id":44912,"date":"2018-10-06T17:32:01","date_gmt":"2018-10-06T21:32:01","guid":{"rendered":"\/usmca-fate-and-mid-term-elections\/"},"modified":"2018-11-07T14:56:08","modified_gmt":"2018-11-07T19:56:08","slug":"usmca-fate-and-mid-term-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.livingstonintl.com\/fr\/usmca-fate-and-mid-term-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"La partisanerie \u00e0 elle seule peu susceptible de d\u00e9cider du sort de l\u2019AEUMC"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cet article a \u00e9t\u00e9 publi\u00e9 dans le Global Trade Magazine<\/a><\/u>le 5\u00a0novembre\u00a02018<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/em><\/p>\n

Par Candace\u00a0Sider, vice-pr\u00e9sidente des affaires gouvernementales et r\u00e9glementaires, Am\u00e9rique du Nord<\/em><\/p>\n

Alors que les \u00e9lections au Congr\u00e8s am\u00e9ricain approchent \u00e0 grands pas, de nombreuses analyses publiques ont \u00e9t\u00e9 men\u00e9es sur l\u2019incidence que pourrait avoir un Congr\u00e8s \u00e0 majorit\u00e9 d\u00e9mocrate sur le sort de l\u2019Accord \u00c9tats-Unis\u2013Mexique\u2013Canada, ou AEUMC, r\u00e9cemment n\u00e9goci\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Certains ont sugg\u00e9r\u00e9 qu\u2019une vague bleue au Congr\u00e8s entra\u00eenerait l\u2019annulation quasi certaine d\u2019un accord commercial dont le sort doit \u00eatre d\u00e9termin\u00e9 par un vote pour ou contre. En fait, la nouvelle Secr\u00e9taire au Commerce mexicaine, Luz\u00a0Maria de la Mora, a r\u00e9cemment indiqu\u00e9 que les d\u00e9mocrates, qui ont toujours consid\u00e9r\u00e9 le libre-\u00e9change de fa\u00e7on moins favorable que les r\u00e9publicains, utiliseront probablement l\u2019AEUMC comme monnaie d\u2019\u00e9change. D\u2019autres ont sugg\u00e9r\u00e9 que les d\u00e9mocrates rejetteraient l\u2019accord afin de faire d\u00e9railler ce qui est largement consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme l\u2019une des principales r\u00e9alisations de l\u2019administration Trump.<\/p>\n

De telles pr\u00e9dictions sont certes plausibles compte tenu de la dynamique politique polaris\u00e9e \u00e0 Washington. Cependant, la partisanerie politique \u00e0 elle seule ne saurait justifier l\u2019annulation de l\u2019AEUMC. Apr\u00e8s tout, chaque membre du Congr\u00e8s, qu\u2019il soit d\u00e9mocrate ou r\u00e9publicain, repr\u00e9sente une circonscription clairement d\u00e9finie qui est caract\u00e9ris\u00e9e par ses propres sp\u00e9cificit\u00e9s et besoins locaux. L\u2019AEUMC \u00e9tant un accord d\u2019exception qui b\u00e9n\u00e9ficie largement aux \u00e9lecteurs d\u2019un membre du Congr\u00e8s, il serait pr\u00e9judiciable sur le plan politique de voter contre simplement par d\u00e9pit.<\/p>\n

Reste \u00e0 savoir \u00e0 quel point les Am\u00e9ricains sont favorables \u00e0 l\u2019AEUMC. En outre, une grande ambivalence persiste quant aux avantages du nouvel accord commercial et \u00e0 la mesure dans laquelle il sera susceptible d\u2019am\u00e9liorer la vie ou les perspectives d\u2019emploi des Am\u00e9ricains. Un sondage r\u00e9alis\u00e9 par POLITICO \/ Morning Consult dix\u00a0jours apr\u00e8s la publication du texte de l\u2019AEUMC par le Bureau du repr\u00e9sentant au commerce des \u00c9tats-Unis (USTR) montre que 38\u00a0% des Am\u00e9ricains croient que l\u2019AEUMC aura une incidence favorable ou nettement favorable sur les travailleurs du secteur manufacturier, alors que 29\u00a0% estiment qu\u2019il aura un effet neutre ou n\u00e9gatif. Les autres personnes interrog\u00e9es n\u2019ont pas exprim\u00e9 d\u2019opinion. En outre, encore moins d\u2019Am\u00e9ricains (32\u00a0%) croient que l\u2019accord aura une incidence favorable ou nettement favorable sur les consommateurs. Moins de la moiti\u00e9 des personnes interrog\u00e9es (43\u00a0%) croient que l\u2019AEUMC est tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rent ou quelque peu diff\u00e9rent de l\u2019ALENA.<\/p>\n

Les groupes du secteur semblent, \u00e0 premi\u00e8re vue, \u00eatre soulag\u00e9s<\/a><\/u>du fait que l\u2019accord \u00ab\u00a0\u00e0 l\u2019amiable\u00a0\u00bb conserve son caract\u00e8re trilat\u00e9ral et dissipe le climat d\u2019incertitude entourant les \u00e9changes commerciaux qui avait terni la confiance des investisseurs au cours des 13\u00a0derniers mois. Cependant, l\u2019att\u00e9nuation des pr\u00e9occupations est loin d\u2019\u00eatre une approbation sans r\u00e9serve d\u2019un accord dont tr\u00e8s peu de personnes \u00e0 l\u2019ext\u00e9rieur de l\u2019administration am\u00e9ricaine souhaitaient la remise \u00e0 neuf.<\/p>\n

Compte tenu de cette ambivalence, l\u2019annulation de la ratification de l\u2019AEUMC par le Congr\u00e8s ne saurait \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme \u00e9tant un acte d\u2019intransigeance, m\u00eame si une telle annulation \u00e9veillerait certainement la col\u00e8re des groupes dont l\u2019accord a permis d\u2019obtenir de modestes concessions (par exemple, les producteurs laitiers, les fabricants, les d\u00e9taillants, les groupes de travailleurs, etc.). De plus, il convient de noter que l\u2019opposition du Congr\u00e8s \u00e0 l\u2019AEUMC<\/a><\/u>ne rel\u00e8verait pas n\u00e9cessairement du domaine exclusif des d\u00e9mocrates. Les r\u00e9publicains du Congr\u00e8s, dont les \u00e9lecteurs pourraient \u00eatre l\u00e9s\u00e9s par les modifications apport\u00e9es \u00e0 certaines dispositions de l\u2019accord commercial, se sont vivement oppos\u00e9s \u00e0 la modification de l\u2019ALENA.<\/p>\n

Le calendrier est \u00e9galement un aspect primordial. Il est peu probable qu\u2019un vote du Congr\u00e8s am\u00e9ricain sur l\u2019AEUMC ait lieu avant l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9\u00a02019, apr\u00e8s le d\u00e9p\u00f4t par la Commission du commerce international de son rapport sur l\u2019incidence \u00e9conomique pr\u00e9vue de l\u2019accord commercial. Beaucoup de choses pourraient changer entre les \u00e9lections au Congr\u00e8s et le vote de ratification en ce qui concerne la mani\u00e8re dont l\u2019accord commercial est per\u00e7u par les parties prenantes les plus touch\u00e9es et la mani\u00e8re dont elles choisissent d\u2019exprimer leur satisfaction, leurs contrari\u00e9t\u00e9s et leurs d\u00e9saccords.<\/p>\n

Le risque de voter \u00ab\u00a0non\u00a0\u00bb n\u2019est pas simplement le retour \u00e0 un accord obsol\u00e8te. Le pr\u00e9sident a d\u00e9j\u00e0 annonc\u00e9 publiquement son intention de se retirer de l\u2019ALENA dans le cas d\u2019une non-ratification par le Congr\u00e8s de l\u2019accord n\u00e9goci\u00e9 par son \u00e9quipe. Le Congr\u00e8s n\u2019aurait donc qu\u2019une seule option\u00a0: adopter le nouvel AEUMC ou refuser tout accord de libre-\u00e9change, ce qui provoquerait un retour \u00e0 un climat d\u2019incertitude dans les \u00e9changes commerciaux.<\/p>\n

De plus, voter \u00ab\u00a0non\u00a0\u00bb permettrait certainement de confirmer le r\u00f4le qu\u2019occupera l\u2019AEUMC comme th\u00e8me majeur de la campagne pr\u00e9sidentielle de 2020. Tout candidat qui votera contre l\u2019AEUMC devra convaincre ses \u00e9lecteurs que les concessions obtenues du Mexique et du Canada n\u2019auraient aucunement profit\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine.<\/p>\n

Autant dire que la ratification de l\u2019AEUMC devrait reposer sur beaucoup plus que sur un changement de composition du Congr\u00e8s. La vague bleue du 6\u00a0novembre ne doit pas n\u00e9cessairement \u00eatre interpr\u00e9t\u00e9e comme un glas pour l\u2019accord commercial naissant. Avec un peu de chance, les membres du Congr\u00e8s, quelle que soit leur all\u00e9geance politique, d\u00e9cideront du sort de l\u2019AEUMC en fonction du rapport sur l\u2019incidence \u00e9conomique de l\u2019ITC, ainsi que des commentaires des groupes industriels et de leurs propres \u00e9lecteurs. Cette initiative, en plus de consolider les m\u00e9rites ou les risques inh\u00e9rents \u00e0 l\u2019accord, permettrait de d\u00e9montrer de mani\u00e8re tangible aux Am\u00e9ricains que leurs repr\u00e9sentants politiques travaillent r\u00e9ellement pour eux.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cet article a \u00e9t\u00e9 publi\u00e9 dans le Global Trade Magazinele 5\u00a0novembre\u00a02018 Par Candace\u00a0Sider, vice-pr\u00e9sidente des affaires gouvernementales et r\u00e9glementaires, Am\u00e9rique du Nord Alors que les \u00e9lections au Congr\u00e8s am\u00e9ricain approchent \u00e0 grands pas, de nombreuses analyses publiques ont \u00e9t\u00e9 men\u00e9es sur l\u2019incidence que pourrait avoir un Congr\u00e8s \u00e0 majorit\u00e9 d\u00e9mocrate sur le sort de l\u2019Accord… Read more »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":44892,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[182],"class_list":["post-44912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nos-experts-vous-parlent"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLa partisanerie \u00e0 elle seule peu susceptible de d\u00e9cider du sort de l\u2019AEUMC - Livingston International<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A \u2018no\u2019 vote would almost certainly secure the USMCA\u2019s place as a 2020 presidential campaign wedge issue. 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