{"id":36396,"date":"2017-06-01T11:45:26","date_gmt":"2017-06-01T15:45:26","guid":{"rendered":"\/non-classifiee\/centrist-victory-in-france-a-win-for-america\/"},"modified":"2017-06-07T10:26:47","modified_gmt":"2017-06-07T14:26:47","slug":"centrist-victory-in-france-a-win-for-america","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.livingstonintl.com\/fr\/centrist-victory-in-france-a-win-for-america\/","title":{"rendered":"La victoire centriste en France est bonne pour l\u2019Am\u00e9rique"},"content":{"rendered":"

Les relations \u00e9conomiques \u00e9troites facilitent les n\u00e9gociations commerciales<\/h1>\n
\n

Article publi\u00e9 le 1er<\/sup> juin 2017 dans le <\/strong>Global Trade Magazine<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Par David Rish, pr\u00e9sident, gestion du commerce mondial, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 internationale Livingston<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

La victoire d\u2019Emmanuel Macron, candidat centriste qui a d\u00e9fait Marine Le Pen, son adversaire populiste d\u2019extr\u00eame droite \u00e0 l\u2019issue des \u00e9lections r\u00e9centes en France, est consid\u00e9r\u00e9e par les experts comme une victoire du camp mod\u00e9r\u00e9 de la politique fran\u00e7aise.<\/p>\n

Selon l\u2019opinion g\u00e9n\u00e9rale, Macron \u00e9tait effectivement le candidat le plus mod\u00e9r\u00e9 parmi les 11 premiers dont les noms figuraient sur les bulletins de vote au premier tour des \u00e9lections fran\u00e7aises, \u00e0 la fin avril. Il \u00e9tait \u00e9galement le seul candidat partisan d\u2019un multilat\u00e9ralisme politique et \u00e9conomique, suppos\u00e9ment d\u00e9laiss\u00e9 par les populations de moins en moins concern\u00e9es en Europe, et particuli\u00e8rement en France.<\/p>\n

Admettons cependant que les politiques \u00e9conomiques du nouveau pr\u00e9sident puissent soulever le doute dans l\u2019esprit des puristes du libre march\u00e9. Macron consid\u00e8re comme imparfaite la strat\u00e9gie europ\u00e9enne en mati\u00e8re de mondialisation et pr\u00e9f\u00e8re adopter une position plus forte dans l\u2019application de politiques antidumping contre les pays asiatiques qui pratiquent une concurrence d\u00e9loyale en Europe. Il favorise \u00e9galement une politique d\u2019achat europ\u00e9enne limitant l\u2019approvisionnement de l\u2019Union aux entreprises qui maintiennent au moins la moiti\u00e9 de leur production \u00e0 l\u2019int\u00e9rieur de l\u2019Europe.<\/p>\n

Il s\u2019est quand m\u00eame oppos\u00e9 ouvertement au protectionnisme g\u00e9n\u00e9ral pr\u00e9conis\u00e9 par sa principale adversaire Marine Le Pen, dont la plate-forme pr\u00e9voyait une taxe de trois pour cent sur toutes les importations et accordait la pr\u00e9f\u00e9rence aux entreprises fran\u00e7aises pour les projets d\u2019approvisionnement publics. Par contre, Macron est partisan de l\u2019AECG, l\u2019accord de libre-\u00e9change contest\u00e9 entre Bruxelles et Ottawa\u00a0; il a exprim\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard du commerce international un esprit d\u2019ouverture qui ne se limite peut-\u00eatre pas \u00e0 de belles phrases. Selon le Japan Times, le premier sommet bilat\u00e9ral<\/a> entre Macron et le Premier ministre japonais Shinzo Abe, le 27 mai, \u00e9tait fortement ax\u00e9 sur la lutte contre le protectionnisme et le potentiel de libre-\u00e9change entre l\u2019Europe et le Japon.<\/p>\n

La pr\u00e9valence de la mod\u00e9ration \u00e0 l\u2019issue des \u00e9lections fran\u00e7aises constitue non seulement un grand avantage pour la France, mais aussi pour les \u00c9tats-Unis et plusieurs autres pays du G7. La France est un pays dont l\u2019impact \u00e9conomique de ce c\u00f4t\u00e9-ci de l\u2019Atlantique passe souvent inaper\u00e7u par les observateurs \u00e9conomiques, bien qu\u2019il soit consid\u00e9rable. L\u2019ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re, la France \u00e9tait le huiti\u00e8me plus important partenaire commercial des \u00c9tats-Unis, \u00e0 la hauteur de 77\u00a0milliards de dollars en \u00e9changes commerciaux, selon l\u2019US Census Bureau<\/a>, ce qui repr\u00e9sente une augmentation de 44 pour cent depuis l\u2019an 2000.<\/p>\n

L\u2019industrie fran\u00e7aise fait preuve d\u2019une remarquable politique d\u2019investissement de capitaux \u00e9trangers, tr\u00e8s d\u00e9sirables pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie des \u00c9tats-Unis. L\u2019investissement \u00e9tranger direct de la France aux \u00c9tats-Unis<\/a> s\u2019\u00e9levait \u00e0 234 milliards de dollars en 2015 (sur une base de co\u00fbts historiques), ce qui fait des \u00c9tats-Unis l\u2019une des principales destinations de ces investissements fran\u00e7ais.<\/p>\n

Ces investissements directs engendrent environ 500\u00a0000 emplois bien r\u00e9mun\u00e9r\u00e9s aux \u00c9tats-Unis. En fait, selon l\u2019US. Bureau of Economic Analysis<\/a>, les investissements des entreprises fran\u00e7aises ont cr\u00e9\u00e9 le deuxi\u00e8me plus grand nombre d\u2019emplois connexes aux \u00c9tats-Unis en 2015 (apr\u00e8s le Canada). Pareillement, les \u00c9tats-Unis investissent beaucoup en France\u00a0; l\u2019Am\u00e9rique repr\u00e9sente le quatri\u00e8me plus grand flux d\u2019investissements \u00e9trangers directs en France.<\/p>\n

\u00c9tant donn\u00e9 ce genre de r\u00e9ciprocit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique, il est certainement utile de pr\u00e9server avec la France (et avec beaucoup d\u2019autres pays europ\u00e9ens) des relations amicales et des \u00e9changes commerciaux relativement libres d\u2019obstacles. Les liens \u00e9conomiques \u00e9troits entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et les pays europ\u00e9ens ont servi de base aux n\u00e9gociations courantes du TTIP (partenariat transatlantique de commerce et d\u2019investissement). Cet accord de libre-\u00e9change entre les deux entit\u00e9s reste en suspens depuis l\u2019ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re, depuis que certains mouvements protectionnistes et populistes en Europe ont commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 \u00e9mettre des doutes sur la poursuite des n\u00e9gociations.<\/p>\n

Cependant, la situation semble \u00e9voluer en faveur du commerce international et du multilat\u00e9ralisme. Lors de la visite \u00e0 Londres, \u00e0 la fin avril, de Paul Ryan, pr\u00e9sident r\u00e9publicain de la Chambre des repr\u00e9sentants, on a beaucoup discut\u00e9 du potentiel d\u2019un accord commercial entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et le Royaume-Uni, et des possibilit\u00e9s semblables avec l\u2019Europe, en insistant quand m\u00eame sur des accords commerciaux \u00e9quitables et intelligents. Wilbur Ross, secr\u00e9taire du Commerce des \u00c9tats-Unis<\/a>, a exprim\u00e9 des opinions semblables, en d\u00e9clarant cependant que la priorit\u00e9 imm\u00e9diate restait la ren\u00e9gociation de l\u2019ALENA.<\/p>\n

Voil\u00e0 donc des commentaires encourageants de la part d\u2019un gouvernement am\u00e9ricain qui avait exprim\u00e9 pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment une forte intention de n\u00e9gocier des accords bilat\u00e9raux avec certains \u00c9tats europ\u00e9ens\u00a0; les relations transatlantiques devraient en b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier.<\/p>\n

Ensemble, la victoire des forces centristes en France, juste apr\u00e8s un vote antipopuliste semblable aux Pays-Bas le mois dernier, et le d\u00e9sir renouvel\u00e9 de Washington d\u2019amorcer des n\u00e9gociations commerciales avec l\u2019Europe, constituent un important changement des intentions de politique commerciale par comparaison \u00e0 la situation d\u2019il y a quelques mois. M\u00eame en Am\u00e9rique du Nord, on ne parle plus de sortir de l\u2019ALENA, mais plut\u00f4t de le remplacer par une ren\u00e9gociation en vue d\u2019un accord tripartite.<\/p>\n

La pr\u00e9valence d\u2019attitudes plus raisonnables parmi les principaux int\u00e9ress\u00e9s du monde industrialis\u00e9 est une indication de l\u2019importance historique des \u00e9changes commerciaux et de leur impact positif sur l\u2019industrialisation, l\u2019emploi et l\u2019innovation\u00a0; ces avantages sont reconnus par les responsables politiques, m\u00eame dans les circonscriptions particuli\u00e8rement populistes.<\/p>\n

Cependant, s\u2019ils esp\u00e8rent rallier les c\u0153urs et les esprits, les responsables politiques devront r\u00e9diger des accords commerciaux qui tiennent compte des pr\u00e9occupations soulev\u00e9es par les mouvements populistes, pour que ceux-ci puissent b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier du commerce international et des investissements \u00e9trangers au lieu de se sentir l\u00e9s\u00e9s par eux.<\/p>\n

Ce n\u2019est pas simple ni impossible, mais cela n\u00e9cessite une strat\u00e9gie de n\u00e9gociation commerciale diff\u00e9rente des pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes. Toute carence dans ce domaine risque de d\u00e9clencher simplement un cercle vicieux de progr\u00e8s commerciaux suivis de populismes et de politiques anti-commerciales pr\u00e9judiciables pour la croissance \u00e9conomique, les investissements et les emplois r\u00e9mun\u00e9rateurs.<\/p>\n

David Rish est pr\u00e9sident, gestion du commerce mondial<\/a> de la Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 internationale Livingston<\/a>, une firme de services de commerce international.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Les relations \u00e9conomiques \u00e9troites facilitent les n\u00e9gociations commerciales Article publi\u00e9 le 1er juin 2017 dans le Global Trade Magazine Par David Rish, pr\u00e9sident, gestion du commerce mondial, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 internationale Livingston La victoire d\u2019Emmanuel Macron, candidat centriste qui a d\u00e9fait Marine Le Pen, son adversaire populiste d\u2019extr\u00eame droite \u00e0 l\u2019issue des \u00e9lections r\u00e9centes en France, est… Read more »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":36353,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[182],"class_list":["post-36396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nos-experts-vous-parlent"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOutcome of French election a win for America<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Given France's level 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